Dealer Bust Cards in Blackjack: The Key to Winning More Hands

Blackjack dealer bust cards are the cards that increase the dealer's chances of going over 21 points, resulting in an automatic loss for them. By getting a handle on which cards put the dealer at risk, you can better control the game.

I'll show you how recognizing when the dealer is vulnerable allows you to make smarter decisions, minimize your risks, and maximize your chances of winning. Want to turn the tables and gain an edge over the house? Let me guide you through this!

Understanding Blackjack Dealer Bust Cards

In Blackjack, the dealer operates under strict rules that dictate their actions. Unlike players who can make strategic decisions, the dealer must hit on any hand totaling 16 or lower and stand on 17 or higher. But in some games, they must hit on a soft 17. This rule varies depending on the casino.

The possibility of a "bust" arises when the dealer draws cards that push their hand total over 21. Since they are required to keep hitting at 16 or less, there’s always a risk of exceeding 21 (especially when the initial cards are low in value). 

You might wonder what happens if the dealer busts in Blackjack. In this case, you'll automatically win if you haven’t busted yourself. Then, you’ll get paid based on your bet, usually at 1:1 odds and 3:2 for a natural Blackjack. A dealer bust is a great opportunity for you, especially if you stand on a lower total as you win without needing to beat their hand directly. It’s one of the best scenarios in the game!

To clarify blackjack dealer bust cards, below is a table detailing the dealer's bust probabilities for each possible upcard in two cases: stand on soft 17 and hit on soft 17.

Learn more about the Soft 17 rule and how it impacts your Blackjack strategy!

Stand on Soft 17 (S17)

Bust odds in 1-deck games: 

Bust odds in 2-deck games: 

Bust odds in 3-deck games: 

Bust odds in 4-deck games: 

Bust odds in 5-deck games: 

Bust odds in 6-deck games: 

Bust odds in 7-deck games: 

Bust odds in 8-deck games: 

Hit on Soft 17 (H17)

Bust odds in 1-deck games: 

Bust odds in 2-deck games: 

Bust odds in 3-deck games: 

Bust odds in 4-deck games: 

Bust odds in 5-deck games: 

Bust odds in 6-deck games: 

Bust odds in 7-deck games: 

Bust odds in 8-deck games: 

Key Insights from Blackjack Dealer Bust Odds

After analyzing those 16 tables covering games with 1 to 8 decks and the rules S17 and H17, I've pinpointed some key insights:

The Fewer Decks in Play, the More Likely the Dealer is to Bust

1-deck games have the highest probability of dealer busting in Blackjack, while 8-deck games have the lowest. This trend is consistent across all up cards and applies to both S17 and H17 rules. 

Example: If the dealer’s up card is a 5, the odds of dealer busting in Blackjack are:

• 42.89% with 1 deck (S17).

• 41.79% with 8 decks (S17).

The reason is that there’s more variation in the hands dealt with fewer cards, which leads to more chances for the dealer to mess up. The difference isn’t huge, but it’s something to keep in mind.

H17 Slightly Increases Bust Risk Compared to S17

H17 gives the dealer a higher chance of busting than S17 because they have to draw another card on soft 17. More draws mean more risks.

Example: With an Ace showing, the dealer’s Blackjack bust probability are:

• 20.46% in H17 (1-deck).

• 16.98% in S17 (1-deck).

The difference shrinks as more decks are added, but H17 still gives players a bit of an edge in the long run. 

Influence of the Dealer’s Up Card

The dealer’s up card is the most important factor affecting bust odds, regardless of the number of decks or rules:

• Low cards (2 - 6) result in the highest bust odds because the dealer is more likely to draw multiple cards to reach 17 or higher. The risk increases with more required draws. For example, a 5 as the up card has the highest bust percentages (e.g., 42.89% in 1-deck S17 and 43.93% in 8-deck H17).
• High cards (7 - Ace) are safer for the dealer because these cards give them a stronger starting hand and require fewer risky draws. With an Ace, the bust odds drop significantly (e.g., ~17% in S17 and ~20% in H17 across all deck sizes).

General Trends in Blackjack Dealer Bust Percentage Range

Across all possible scenarios, the dealer's bust odds generally fall between 23% and 44%. This depends on the number of decks, and, most importantly, the up card.

• The up card (low cards = high bust odds, high cards = low bust odds).
• Game rules (H17 slightly increases bust risk compared to S17).
• Deck size (fewer decks = more variability, more decks = more stability).

Among these factors, the dealer’s up card is the biggest factor in deciding their bust odds as it determines the likelihood they’ll need to draw additional cards:

• The lowest odds (~23%) occur when the dealer has a high card (Ace or 10) as their up card.
• The highest odds (~44%) are seen when the dealer has a low card (like 4, 5, or 6) as their up card.

Having drawn the above conclusions, I’ll give you some advice to help you optimize your Blackjack strategy in the next section.

Tips for Maximizing Your Blackjack Strategy

Now you understand how the Blackjack odds of dealer busting work. Here’s a breakdown of key tips to give you an edge at the table:

• Pay attention to the dealer’s up card: Low cards (2 - 6) mean higher bust odds; so you should play safely and bet aggressively in these cases. If the dealer has a high card (7 - Ace), be cautious with your moves and focus on optimizing your hand as they're less likely to bust.
• Understand the rules: In H17 games, the dealers have a slightly higher chance of busting, especially with weak up cards. So, you can be more flexible with your bets. Their bust odds are lower in S17 games, so make careful decisions when betting or drawing.
• Consider deck numbers: Fewer decks (1 - 2) increase the dealer's bust odds, so you might adopt more aggressive strategies. More decks (6 - 8) decrease bust odds slightly, so consider a more conservative approach.
• Adapt to situations: Let the dealer bust when they have weak cards (4 - 6). Compete strategically with strong cards (10, Ace).
• Stick to your strategy: Combine factors like the dealer’s up card, rules, and decks to make informed decisions. Play consistently and avoid emotional choices for better outcomes.

In short, to optimize your strategy, you should always pay attention to the dealer's face-up card. Also, combine with the rules and number of decks to make the most correct decision.

Conclusion

Understanding Blackjack dealer bust cards can give you a big advantage at the table. By recognizing which upcards put the dealer at risk of busting, you can make smarter decisions, reduce unnecessary risks, and capitalize on their vulnerabilities. My advice is to play conservatively when the dealer has a strong hand and get aggressive when they’re more likely to bust. Good luck!