Former Vice President Joe Biden has been one of the front-runners in the Democratic leadership battle as US presidential campaigns launch their campaign journey throughout the nation-states.
SBC talked to Smarkets ' Head of Political Markets, Sarbjit Bakhshi, discussing some of the factors behind Biden's success, and why it might be a rather competitive election coming November season.
SBC: In past few weeks, Biden has risen in prominence to become the Democrat nominee, what do you believe has been the guiding force behind that?
Sarbjit Bakhshi: Biden was on Super Tuesday breakaway moment. He won far more delegates than anticipated, partially due to the support of other contestants who backed off and mostly because he was perceived as somebody who could appeal to the plurality of Americans who voted. Essentially, it seems he has been identified as the nominee who will win Trump's presidency.
Reporter: Are voters expressing some support for Trump with a second term as a president to' remake America great again'? Or do other nominees like Biden have caught the interest of voters?
Sarbjit Bakhshi: Biden is now leading our market to win the presidency from Trump at 46% to 45% of the candidate, so trading on markets obviously means that he has a good shot. Trump has been the heavy favorite on our Smarket from the outset, but after Super Tuesday when it eventually became apparent who the Democrat's candidate will be, his popularity and likeness have been decreasing.
The meteoric rise of Biden after March 3 resulted in him grabbing the top position in this sector for the very first time last Friday, but I also predict that as we enter November we might witness some intriguing uncertainty and a shoulder-to-shoulder battle between these two.
Reporter: With COVID-19 leading in a compulsory cancelation/postponement of sporting activities, has any participation been rendered in political case trading?
Sarbjit Bakhshi: We're witnessing a very strong take-up in political case trading and have already dealt more this year than in 2018 at all. We are developing plenty of fresh exciting opportunities at Smarkets and we will offer plenty for everyone irrespective of the circumstance of the sports, and indeed we have a range of markets about what athletic activity is expected to restart and what may or may not be canceled and everything related to that.
Reporter: Have any other political markets observed Trade increase?
Sarbjit Bakhshi: With 3 women-Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Stacy Abrams-at the lead, the Democratic VP competition is really important. Harris compares to Klobuchar's 24 percent at 28 percent, and there is a competitive competition with a lot of user engagement.